The contrast of the shadow blued waters and the intense orange/yellow of the tree is superb and hints at a seasonal narrative of natural, inevitable change which creates "neither one nor ta other" moments. Creating narrative in landscapes is not so easy, well done on that score. Impact might be improved by off centred framing of that tree, the central placement tends to reduce the viewers sense of space and openness due to how it reduces eye "scanning" across the image. I admire you for being up, out and about when it was cold enough for the water to be "smoking". Love that mood.